OPINION POLLING INFLUENCE ON ELECTION VIOLENCE IN SELECTED COUNTIES IN KENYA SINCE 2002
Abstract
Opinion polling has been practiced in Kenya since 2002 and receive wide acceptance especially by the Kenyan media. However, the post-election violence occurrence in 2007 is widely linked to polls which offered one contestant a sure win, thus heightening the emotions and expectations of his supporters, which is widely thought to have led to the occurrence of the violence. Though opinion polling has been widely studied, it was observed that there is no established link to the occurrence of election violence. This study therefore sought to establish the influence of opinion polling on post-election violence in selected counties in Kenya, by examining the nature and extent of opinion polling, the influence of opinion polling on the occurrence of election violence, and challenges of the process of opinion polling. Adopting a descriptive research design on a population of media practitioners, state officers, polling firms, government, and social groups in Nakuru, Kwale, Nairobi and Kisumu Counties, the study acquired a sample of 317 (251 respondents; 66 Interviewees) from whom data was collected using a questionnaire and interview guide which was then analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The study found that the nature and extent of opinion polling is that there are ongoing manipulations of the studies and polling firms are compromised while the media is ready and willing to cash in on the polls. The study also found that ethnic based polling; statistical disparities in polling, and commentaries on polls, influence occurrence of election violence. It was also observed that regional biasness of the polls, tribal based polling, and a must win mentality are challenges linked to election violence. The study conclude that election violence occurrence is significantly attributed to opinion polling and recommend that state should enforce laws, sensitize citizens, and a code of conduct on opinion polling.
Keywords: Election Violence; Opinion Polling; Elections Polls; Polling Biasness; Challenges of Polling
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.61426/sjbcm.v3i4.394
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