COMBATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN TEA AND COFFEE FARMING IN EAST AFRICA: THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE
Abstract
Global warming has become one of the major challenges in maintaining global food security. Climate change triggered by global warming poses a major threat to agricultural systems globally and in East Africa in particular. This phenomenon is characterized by emergence of pests and diseases, extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, high intensity rains, hailstones and frosts, which are becoming more frequent thus, impacting negatively agricultural productivity including rain-fed tea cultivation. East Africa countries are predominantly an agriculturally based economy, with the tea and coffee sector playing key role as a cash crop. In the recent years, however, the countries have witnessed unstable trends in tea and coffee production associated with climate driven stresses. Toward mitigation and adaptation of climate change, multiple approaches for impact assessment, intensity prediction and adaptation have been advanced in the East Africa countries tea sub-sector. This review described simulation models combined with high resolution climate change scenarios required to quantify the relative importance of the climate change on tea and coffee production. In addition, both biodiversity and ecosystem-based approaches were also described as a part of an overall adaptation strategy to mitigate adverse effects of climate change on tea and coffee in the East Africa countries and gaps highlighted for urgent investigations.
Climate variability and change have adversely affected agriculture sector and the situation is expected to worsen in the future. The paper found out that climate variability and change affect agricultural production but effects differ across crops. It was found that temperature has a negative effect on tea and coffee revenues but a positive one on tea, while rainfall has a negative effect on coffee. The paper found out that tea relies on stable temperatures and consistent rainfall patterns and any excess would negatively affect production. Temperature has a greater impact on crop production than rainfall. Climate change will adversely affect agriculture in 2020, 2030 and 2040 with greater effects in the tea sector. Therefore, rethinking the likely harmful effects of rising temperatures and increasing rainfall uncertainty should be a priority in East Africa. Driven by competitive pressure, global production has consolidated among fewer origins: more than 70% of supply is now sourced from five countries. African production has dropped by 18% since 1990 and only Ethiopia and Uganda figure in the top 10 global ranking. African origins must consider how to improve productivity to remain competitive in global markets, but they also need to consider value addition to earn a higher share of what they produce. Implementing adaptation measures at national, county and farm levels as well as putting in place policies that prevent destruction of the natural environment will assist to address the challenges posed by climate variability and change.
Climate change is projected to increase median temperature by 1.4–5.5°C and median precipitation by −2% to 20% by the end of the 21st century. However, large levels of uncertainty exist with temporal and spatial variability of rainfall events. The impact of climate change on crop yields in the region is largely negative. Among the grain crops, wheat is reported as the most vulnerable crop, for which up to 72% of the current yield is projected to decline. Thus, as climate change puts both Arabica and Robusta coffee bean production at risk, it affects the supply of coffee. When we consider the increasing amount of coffee consumption in America and the decreasing availability of coffee beans around the world, a shortage will be inevitable; these developments will have far-reaching implications for farmer incomes and livelihoods, rural-to-urban migration, and international coffee prices and demand. If we don’t start acting to mitigate, or, in some cases, acknowledge climate change, it may soon be time to bid farewell to America’s coffee habit. However, a recent study in Scientific Reports has already offered cocoa as a more climate-resilient crop to serve as an alternative to coffee plants as coffee production declines.
Keywords: Climate change, Tea farming, Coffee farming, East Africa
CITATION: Rwigema, P, C. (2021). Combating climate change impacts in tea and coffee farming in East Africa: Theoretical perspective. The Strategic Journal of Business & Change Management, 8 (2), 521 – 553.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.61426/sjbcm.v8i2.2013
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