THE ROLE OF OPINION POLLING ON THE OCCURRENCE OF ELECTION VIOLENCE IN KENYA
Abstract
One of the modern inventions in the democratic space is the practice of opinion polling. Opinion polling gained popularity in Kenya in the dawn of Kibaki regime which widened the democratic space in the society. It has been in use since introduction in 2002, studying the voting behaviour of different groups, the voting decision-making process, the impact of campaigns, and other phenomena. However, it has been widely speculated that opinion polling might have been the trigger for election violence. Post-election violence experienced in 2007 in Kenya has been widely linked to opinion polling. However, though opinion polling has been widely studied, no evidence of studies showing the link of polls to occurrence of election violence. This study sought to establish the influence of opinion polling on election violence in selected counties in Kenya. The study is guided by liberal, two step, and media framing theories. The study utilized descriptive research design on population of media practitioners, State officers, Polling Firms, government, and Social Groups in Nakuru, Kwale, Nairobi and Kisumu Counties, from whom a study sample of 317 (251 respondents; 66 Interviewees) respondents was acquired. A semi-structured questionnaire and interview guide were used to collect data from the study sample which was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The study found existence of manipulations of the studies and polling firms are compromised while the media is ready and willing to cash in on the polls. It was also found that ethnic based polling; statistical disparities in polling and commentaries on polls influence occurrence of election violence. The study concludes that election violence occurrence is significantly influenced by opinion polling. The study recommends the state to impose laws that control the practice and media, sensitize citizens on opinion polling, and create a code of conduct.
Keywords: Opinion Polling; Polls Manipulation; Media Commentaries; Errors of Polling; Election Violence; Polling Biasness
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.61426/sjbcm.v3i4.393
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